As President Bola Ahmed Tinubu marks his second year in office, after taking over power from Muhammadu Buhari. Nigeria stands at a critical juncture. With a pledge of “Renewed Hope,” Tinubu inherited a nation grappling with economic malaise, security concerns, and eroding public institutions.
Two years on, the realities on the ground paint a sobering picture: systemic corruption, administrative missteps, and a growing gap between government promises and the lived experiences of citizens continue to define the national mood.
ToriPost examines the performance of the Tinubu administration over the past 24 months, identifying key governance shortcomings while contextualizing the implications for Nigeria’s future.
1. A Persistent Corruption Burden
Corruption remains an enduring obstacle to Nigeria’s development. In Transparency International’s 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index, Nigeria ranked 145th out of 180 countries—a stark indication that efforts to combat graft remain insufficient.
One of President Tinubu’s administration most controversial moves—the removal of the longstanding petrol subsidy in May 2023—was billed as a decisive step toward fiscal sustainability. However, implementation has been marred by opacity and questions over fund allocation. While the government projected significant savings, many Nigerians are yet to see meaningful reinvestment in social services. The absence of a transparent framework for deploying subsidy savings has fed speculation that public funds have been misappropriated.
Similarly, investigations into infrastructure financing suggest irregularities. A 2024 report by the Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP) found that more than ₦500 billion ($600 million) allocated to critical projects could not be traced to measurable outcomes. Allegations of inflated contracts and kickbacks have resurfaced, undermining public confidence.
Despite a ₦3.25 trillion ($3.9 billion) security allocation in the 2024 budget, insecurity continues to escalate. Banditry, kidnapping, and insurgency persist across multiple states, with reports suggesting that a portion of defense funds are lost to procurement fraud or diverted through opaque contracting processes. The result is a security architecture that is under-resourced and overstretched.
2. Economic Policy in Disarray
Tinubu’s administration has introduced ambitious economic reforms, including the unification of the naira’s exchange rate. While aimed at improving investor confidence and tackling market distortions, the policy has had destabilizing effects. The naira plunged to ₦1,500 per U.S. dollar by mid-2024, driving inflation to a 28-year high of 34%. Businesses now face currency volatility and tightening liquidity, compounding the recessionary pressures.
The Central Bank’s interest rate hike to 26.25%—intended to tame inflation—has added further strain to an economy already weighed down by low productivity and high debt servicing costs. Instead of restoring macroeconomic stability, these measures have deepened uncertainty for households and investors alike.
3. Infrastructure and Service Delivery Gaps
Despite rhetorical commitments to revamp power generation, Nigeria continues to generate less than 4,000MW of electricity for over 220 million people—a stagnation that has persisted for decades. Promised reforms in the energy sector, including privatization and deregulation, remain largely cosmetic. The absence of a coherent investment strategy in renewables or transmission infrastructure has left millions in darkness.
Agriculture, once a cornerstone of Nigeria’s non-oil economy, has similarly suffered from policy inertia. Despite grand pronouncements about boosting domestic food production, insecurity in rural areas, rising input costs, and inadequate post-harvest facilities have led to a decline in productivity. Nigeria now spends an estimated $15 billion annually on food imports, undermining food sovereignty.
4. Human Development in Crisis
The socio-economic impact of these governance challenges is stark. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, over 133 million Nigerians—63% of the population—live in multidimensional poverty. Unemployment remains alarmingly high, particularly among youth, where joblessness is estimated at 53%.
In health and education, systemic underfunding has led to deteriorating service delivery. Public hospitals face chronic shortages of personnel and equipment, while frequent industrial actions by health workers and educators disrupt critical services. With over 20 million children out of school, Nigeria holds the grim record of the highest number of out-of-school children globally.
The brain drain has accelerated, with 5,391 medical doctors emigrating since 2023. The loss of skilled labor underscores a broader erosion of confidence in the state’s capacity to provide opportunities and security.
5. Erosion of Democratic Norms and Institutional Integrity
Concerns have also grown over democratic backsliding and weakening accountability mechanisms. Critics have pointed to a pattern of appointments favoring political loyalists over technocrats, raising questions about meritocracy and institutional credibility. Key positions, including the leadership of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), have reportedly been filled without transparent vetting processes.
Legislative tools such as the 2024 Cybercrime Act have been used to target dissenting voices, journalists, and activists. Media watchdogs have warned that the law is being weaponized to curtail freedom of expression under the guise of national security.
In the judiciary, stalled corruption trials involving high-profile political figures have reinforced perceptions of selective justice. Legal delays and procedural setbacks contribute to a two-tiered system that undermines the rule of law.
6. Nigeria’s Diminished Global Standing
Nigeria’s international reputation has also taken a hit. Investor confidence has waned, with several multinational corporations, including Shell, Bayer, and Microsoft, scaling down or exiting operations in Nigeria. Diplomatic relations with Western partners have grown tense, with sanctions imposed on Nigerian officials over alleged electoral malpractice and human rights violations.
These developments threaten to isolate Nigeria at a time when it requires global partnerships to tackle insecurity, climate resilience, and economic diversification.
The Road Ahead
As President Tinubu enters the third year of his administration, the urgency for course correction is undeniable. Nigeria’s challenges are not insurmountable, but addressing them requires more than rhetoric—it demands political will, institutional reform, and an unwavering commitment to transparency.
To change the narrative, the government must prioritize inclusive governance, depoliticize public appointments, and reassert accountability across all levels. Investment in education, health, and infrastructure must be backed by measurable outcomes, not slogans. More crucially, corruption must be confronted not with speeches, but with systemic reforms and impartial enforcement.
If the Tinubu administration is to secure a meaningful legacy, it must transcend partisan politics and act decisively in the national interest. Anything short of this risks deepening the current crises—and squandering the promise of a more prosperous, equitable Nigeria.