In the teeming markets of Lagos, where daily survival fuels both hustle and hope, President Bola Tinubu’s economic blueprint has sown despair. Unveiled in 2023 as the “Renewed Hope Agenda”, the plan subsidy cuts, currency liberalisation, and aggressive tax expansion promised to rescue Nigeria from fiscal decay.
Instead, it has unleashed a wave of hardship, with soaring fuel prices, rampant inflation, and new levies crushing household budgets. While the administration’s mid-term review in May 2025 trumpeted fiscal gains, a stark question looms: is this a painful but necessary reset, or a policy misstep compounded by political elites’ plunder? The immediate toll and long-term risks for Africa’s largest economy demand scrutiny.
Tinubu’s agenda confronts Nigeria’s oil-dependent, subsidy-laden model head-on. By abolishing fuel subsidies and floating the naira in 2023, the government aimed to liberate billions for reinvestment and unify a fractured foreign exchange market. The June 2025 Tax Reform Acts, including the Nigeria Tax Act and Revenue Service Act, target a woeful 6 per cent tax-to-GDP ratio among the lowest in sub-Saharan Africa through measures like digital service taxes on global tech firms, corporate minimums, and small-business exemptions. Finance Minister Wale Edun champions these as catalysts for jobs and infrastructure, with Q2 2025 GDP growth of 4.23 per cent as evidence. Yet, beneath the headline figures lies a grimmer reality.
IMMEDIATE PAIN: A SQUEEZED POPULACE
The short-term impact of Tinubu’s reforms has been brutal, eroding living standards across a nation where poverty is endemic. The naira’s 2023 float triggered a 70 per cent collapse against the dollar, driving import costs skyward and inflation to a 34.2 per cent peak in mid-2024. Though inflation eased to 22 per cent by October 2025, staples like rice and garri have doubled in price, devastating the 40 per cent of Nigerians living below $2.15 a day.
The removal of fuel subsidies, a linchpin of the agenda, has been particularly punishing. Petrol prices leapt from NGN185 to over NGN910 per litre, inflating transport and food supply chains. Urban purchasing power has plummeted 25-30 per cent, analysts estimate, fuelling protests and a spike in petty crime.
New taxes VAT hikes on luxury goods, a 5 per cent levy on high earners, and levies on digital and non-resident income add to the burden. This For the informal sector, which employs 80 per cent of workers, compliance is a distant concern; the immediate sting is a pervasive sense of state extraction with little return.
This hardship is exacerbated by systemic corruption and executive profligacy. Allegations of looting N500bn reportedly siphoned from the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs in a year have gutted anti-poverty programmes, amplifying the pain of subsidy cuts. Such graft inflates reform costs, erodes trust, and undermines tax compliance, as citizens balk at funding perceived political elites’ impunity. The World Bank’s September 2025 report highlights the human cost: 139 million Nigerians remain in poverty, unchanged despite growth. Northern insecurity, driven by Fulani terrorist , compounds the crisis, turning economic strain into a humanitarian quagmire. The administration calls these “birth pangs” of reform, echoing post-Soviet shock therapy, but with 2027 elections nearing, public patience is thinning.
CORRUPTION’S SHADOW: UNDERMINING REFORM’S PROMISE
Corruption and reckless financial conduct among political elites threaten to derail Tinubu’s vision. The president claimed in August 2025 that subsidy removal and anti-smuggling drives have delivered “more money, less corruption”.
The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission’s (EFCC) intensified probes and revenue agency reforms are cited as proof of resolve.
Yet, critics argue corruption has evolved into a sophisticated “cartel” under Tinubu, surpassing previous regimes’ excesses. A September 2025 Chatham House report warns that graft stifles growth, erodes trust, and cements Nigeria among the world’s 40 most corrupt nations. Surveys show 70 per cent of Nigerians view the police and presidency as corruption hubs. Reckless borrowing such as a $1.75bn World Bank request faces accusations of “fiscal vandalism” for its opacity. Opposition groups, including the Conference of Nigeria Political Parties, decry not revenue shortages but “looting and mismanagement” through inflated contracts and diverted infrastructure funds. Social media amplifies outrage, alleging N100bn monthly federation account diversions and N2tn looted in Tinubu’s first seven months, framing the regime as a “borrow-and-embezzle” machine. This undermines policy efficacy: tax reforms falter as citizens resist funding political elites’ enrichment, while forex gains are siphoned off, leaving austerity’s burden on the masses.
LONG-TERM OUTLOOK: RENEWAL OR RUPTURE?
The administration envisions a transformed Nigeria: diversified, with revenues funding roads, rail, and renewables. The fiscal deficit narrowed to 3 per cent of GDP in 2024 from 5.4 per cent, with non-oil revenues up 40 per cent. Foreign reserves hit $35bn, offering a buffer against shocks, while tax reforms could lift the tax-to-GDP ratio to 15 per cent by 2030, supporting programmes like the expanded National Social Investment Programme.
Yet, the long-term path is precarious, particularly with corruption unchecked. Inequality, already high with a Gini coefficient of 35.1, risks worsening as political elites exploit tax loopholes, leaving small businesses to bear the load. Manufacturing growth, at a mere 1.2 per cent in 2025, struggles under rising input costs. The World Bank warns of inflation rebounds from supply-chain fragilities, with naira volatility deterring foreign direct investment, down 12 per cent in H1 2025. Unchecked looting and reckless borrowing could burden future generations, diverting funds from productive investments.
Analysts at PwC stress that success hinges on execution: digital tax enforcement must curb political elites’ evasion, while agricultural subsidies and skills training are vital to harness Nigeria’s 200 million-strong youth demographic. A former US envoy likened the reforms to “chemotherapy for a terminal illness”, but their viability depends on political will to pair austerity with inclusion and robust anti-corruption measures, lest social unrest unravels progress.
Nigeria stands at a crossroads. Tinubu’s reforms offer fiscal breathing room but at a steep cost to equity, echoing austerity experiments from Greece to Argentina. With targeted investments and a crackdown on political elites’ excesses, a resilient economy could emerge by 2030. Without swift relief for the beleaguered majority and accountability for those at the top, the blueprint risks becoming a cautionary tale of growth without justice. As the administration presses forward, the true measure lies not in economic indicators, but in the endurance of a people long promised hope, yet so often denied it.