Sixteen years after Boko Haram first spilled blood, communities in Nigeria’s northeast are still burying their dead. Only four days ago, ISWAP, a splinter Boko Haram group, struck again and killed at least 23 farmers and fishermen in Borno in the latest round of attacks.
The northeast region of Africa’s most populous country is profusely bleeding – and the country seems numb. This was not supposed to be the story in 2025, but it is.
Boko Haram and its deadlier cousin ISWAP are not just surviving they are expanding, recruiting, and evolving. From crude daggers in 2009 to drones, IEDs, and encrypted comms today – terror has increased unabated.
However, Nigeria appears to be fumbling with outdated playbooks and recycled service chiefs.
The UN says 35,000 civilians have died. Two million have fled their homes. But who is counting when outrage comes in hashtags and fades in hours?
We all remember 2014 – Chibok. Over 200 girls vanished in the night. The world tweeted. Abuja stalled. By 2015, some mercenaries were brought in under President Jonathan. It worked briefly. Then the noise died down. So did the momentum.
Enter Buhari. More military spending. More uniforms. More losses. Protesters marched. Service chiefs were replaced. Nothing changed. Boko Haram stayed three steps ahead. Their weapons grew smarter. Their operations spread wider. Their funding? Still flowing like a pipeline nobody wants to trace.
Today, under Bola Tinubu, the headlines feel like a loop. Suicide bombings. Kidnapped soldiers. Burnt villages. Every attack feels familiar – because we have seen this play out before.
But here’s the part nobody wants to say out loud: this war is profitable for some. A conflict that’s dragged for 16 years and gulped billions – without answers – begs the question: who gains when Boko Haram survives?
Analysts say Nigeria’s biggest failure is not firepower. It is a follow-through. Terrorism is not just a battlefield problem. It is economic, political, and cross-border. When Niger Republic pulled out of the regional coalition, the insurgents cheered. Less surveillance. More ground to cover.
The Multinational Joint Task Force, based in Chad, was once a glimmer of hope. Today, it’s a shell of its ambition.
So, what is the road to victory?
A justice system that works. Borders that do not leak. Communities that are not abandoned. A government that follows the money, not just the insurgents.
Until then, this insurgency will remain a business. And Nigeria? A customer paying with the lives of its citizens.